7 أحداث اقتصادية تؤثر على اتجاهات الأسواق العالمية الأسبوع الحالي
Economic events include: statements by the Governor of the Central Bank of New Zealand, Orr, and Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the day after tomorrow, and the announcement of Standard & Poor’s Global Purchasing Managers’ data, manufacturing, composites, and services, on Thursday, and on Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data will be released.
Last week
According to the report, last week witnessed the continuation of global stock markets on their upward path, mainly driven by the strong performance of technology stocks and positive sentiment surrounding Chinese economic stimulus measures, and the major United States stock indices, including the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached levels A new record, extending its streak of gains to six consecutive weeks.
Several economic factors also supported the general rise in markets; The continued strength of the US economy and the expectation of further interest rate cuts have contributed to creating a positive atmosphere for investors.
According to a US Commerce Department report, retail sales rose 0.4% in September, driven by strength in a wide range of sales categories that offset weak spending on fuel and automobiles.
Geopolitical tensions
Moreover, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the positive impact of China’s stimulus measures boosted global market confidence following some earlier concerns about a potential global slowdown. The previous trading week witnessed significant fluctuations in the market, with varying performance of sectors amid developments in global events that affected investor confidence.
European stocks rose on Friday, driven by a rebound in technology stocks and positive corporate results. The European STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, with the technology sector leading the rise after a turbulent week.
The index appeared poised to post weekly gains for the second time in a row, supported by the latest interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and corporate optimism.
Currencies and market sentiment
The US dollar fell slightly against a basket of currencies, reflecting improved appetite for risk-related assets. However, the dollar remained on track for its third consecutive weekly gain.
Oil prices fell, weighed down by concerns about Chinese demand and mixed sentiment about the conflict in the Middle East.
The British pound continued its downward trajectory on Thursday, as it struggled to maintain its position above the 1.3000 level against the US dollar.
This decline was mainly driven by a combination of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and growing optimism about Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming US presidential election.
US economic indicators supported the dollar, as US retail sales for September exceeded expectations, rising by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Additionally, initial unemployment claims fell to 241,000, indicating a resilient labor market.
These positive economic indicators strengthened the US dollar and lowered expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The increasing possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election also contributed to the rise in the value of the US dollar. Investors expect that the Trump administration, once it reaches the White House, will implement policies that could benefit the US economy and currency, such as implementing more flexible financial conditions, higher import duties, and reducing taxes.
The British pound faced additional pressure due to slowing inflation in the United Kingdom, which increased expectations that the Bank of England would adopt a more dovish monetary policy. The UK CPI fell to 1.7% in September, below the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This slowdown in inflation has led to bets on interest rate cuts in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, GBP’s short-term prospects look bearish. The GBP/USD pair has broken through key support levels and is under downward pressure from both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The Relative Strength Index also fell below 40, indicating downward momentum.
The British pound has been under pressure from a combination of factors, including stronger US economic data, rising Trump expectations, and slowing UK inflation. If these trends continue, GBP/USD could face further declines. In addition, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties could also impact the performance of the pound sterling.
Gold to a new record high
The price of gold rose above the level of US$2,700 per ounce for the first time on Friday, extending its rise driven by expectations of further easing of monetary policy globally in general, and in particular in the United States, and strong demand for the precious metal as one of the most important safe haven assets from potential risks.
Returning to the stock market, its continued upward momentum is clear evidence of positive economic factors and investor sentiment pushing the market higher. Despite the challenges and uncertainties it faces in the future, the general outlook remains optimistic. Investors should closely monitor economic indicators, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings to make informed decisions.
Semiconductor shock
Disappointing 2025 forecasts from Dutch chip giant ASML have shocked the market, and revised forecasts for the company’s net sales and weak orders have led to a $420 billion drop in the value of global semiconductor makers’ stocks.
In particular, semiconductor manufacturers such as NVIDIA and AMD were negatively affected. This setback, coupled with concerns about export restrictions and longer recovery times, are among the factors of concern in the sector.
Oil prices
Rising tensions in the Middle East cast a shadow over oil markets. Despite initial post-conflict spikes, prices quickly fell, reversing the trends and post-conflict performance observed earlier this year.
This highlights the growing resilience of modern oil markets, which are increasingly dependent on production and OPEC’s decisions to manage geopolitical storms. However, the potential for disruptions remains, as energy infrastructure could become a target in the event of escalation.
Technology stocks
Technology stocks, especially large-cap momentum stocks, pushed the Nasdaq Composite higher driven by positive earnings reports, such as strong subscriber growth for Netflix’s streaming services, and a generally positive outlook for the technology industry.
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While Netflix’s success was among the notable news during the previous trading week, other companies reported mixed results. For example, Proctor & Gamble saw a decline in sales due to slowing demand. This highlights the ongoing challenges facing some sectors despite the trend. Overall bullish market.
Following the strong performance of a number of banking sector stars, the earnings season has begun for retail stocks, and this positive start naturally paves the way for upcoming technology earnings, which are expected to boost US indices.
Meanwhile, the financial sector emerged as the best performer of the week, driven by positive earnings surprises and the prospect of interest rate cuts in November. In addition, services companies continued their outperformance throughout the year, benefiting from their public nature and the energy demand associated with artificial intelligence.
Data-driven approach
In a market environment witnessing non-stop volatility, AlphaPix, a data-driven stock selection service that collects a large amount of data about companies listed on the stock exchange and analyzes it using advanced algorithms and thus identifies strong stocks, has provided an attractive alternative. Using a quantitative model, AlphaBix identifies “Strong Buy” rated stocks with high growth potential and attractive valuations.
This approach has achieved great results, and consequently, the AlphaPix portfolio has achieved a total return of 158% compared to the S&P 500’s return of 54% since its launch in July 2022. The AlphaPix portfolio is characterized by superior revenue and earnings growth rates compared to the S&P 500 index. Poor’s 500, making it a promising choice for investors.
The rise of the dollar
Last week’s market was a microcosm of the ongoing battle between positive earnings reports, geopolitical tensions and sector-specific challenges. While the semiconductor industry faces headwinds, a data-driven approach offers a promising path for investors seeking strong returns as the November jobs report approaches and trends evolve. Broadly speaking, market volatility is likely to continue.
Additional analyses
The ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East and other regions could further impact oil prices and global markets. Investors should closely monitor developments in these areas.
The rapid pace of technological innovation, especially in the field of artificial intelligence and automation, presents diverse opportunities and risks for different industries. Investors need to keep up with these trends to identify potential winners and losers.
In addition to the jobs report, other key economic indicators such as inflation, consumer confidence and retail sales will also be closely watched by investors.
Changes in regulatory policies, whether at the local or international level, can significantly impact the markets. Investors should pay attention to developments in areas such as trade, taxes and environmental regulations.
Historical bullish series
The stock market’s impressive performance in 2024 has raised expectations for further gains. If the S&P 500 can maintain its current trajectory, it will mark the second year in a row that it has returned more than 20%, a feat that has only been achieved five times in the past 75 years. Although historical precedent suggests that such a series is rare, current economic conditions provide support for additional growth.
The S&P 500 has risen more than 12% since early August, extending its year-to-date return to about 23%. If this momentum continues, it will make 2024 the second year in a row that it has returned 20% or more. This outstanding performance is mainly due to a combination of economic growth, favorable monetary policy and higher corporate profits.
A rare achievement
Since 1950, there have been only five instances of the stock market tracking annual gains of more than 20% with another year of 20%. This happened twice in the 1950s, with the most impressive periods being in 1950-51 and 1954-55, with gains of 32% and 24% respectively.
While annual gains of more than 20% are common, three consecutive years of consecutive gains are much rarer, and this highlights the importance of current market performance and the need for caution.
Quest for the trilogy
Achieving a triple digit of 20% returns is even rarer, the report said. In the past 75 years, there has only been one instance of this, during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, and excluding that period, the market has seen gains in three out of four cases after consecutive 20% rallies, with an average return of 6%.
The key to continued market performance lies in the underlying economic fundamentals. A strong economy, favorable interest rates and rising corporate profits are the essential ingredients for sustainable growth. Although current economic conditions may not be as strong as in some past periods, they provide a supportive environment for further gains.
Challenges and opportunities
While the stock market outlook appears positive, it is necessary to acknowledge potential challenges. Global geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and economic uncertainties can impact market sentiment. However, current favorable conditions, including easing interest rates and accelerating corporate profits, provide a strong foundation for continued growth.
According to the report issued by Noor Capital, the impressive stock market performance in 2024 has raised expectations for a continuing upward wave. Although historical data suggests such a series is rare, current economic fundamentals provide a supportive environment for further gains. Investors should remain cautious and monitor developments closely, but the overall market outlook looks promising.
The upcoming jobs report will be pivotal in shaping labor market narratives and potentially influencing future Fed decisions. Persistently low interest rates continue to support growth stocks, especially in technology and financial services, despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
However, with concerns about antitrust scrutiny and weak demand for technology devices, the possibility of a shift towards value stocks cannot be ruled out. The cryptocurrency market has also been on the rise, with Bitcoin topping the list with significant ETF inflows. However, regulatory hurdles remain a major challenge for the sector.
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